Iraqi public opinion: bad news and good
The unrelenting violence and chaos of Iraq have taken their toll on the people there, according to a new study of Iraqi public opinion. The study, based on two surveys of over 2,300 Iraqis in 2004 and 2006, found increased feelings of powerlessness, insecurity, xenophobia, and pessimism, along with a striking level of distrust of U.S. intentions. At the same time, the surveys found a surprising rise in support for secular politics and nationalism, even as sectarian militias may be pulling the country toward all-out civil war. Sponsored by the National Science Foundation, the project was done by Profs. Mansoor Moaddel of Eastern Michigan University and Ronald Inglehart and Mark Tessler of the University of Michigan.
The growing sense of insecurity affected all three of Iraq's major ethnic and religious groups. The number of Iraqis who "strongly agreed" that life is "unpredictable and dangerous" jumped from 41 percent to 48 percent of Shiites, from 67 percent to 79 percent of Sunnis and from 16 percent to 50 percent of Kurds. Xenophobia is also pervasive: Ninety percent of Iraqis would not like to have Americans or British as neighbors. Nor were fellow Muslims spared: Sixty-one percent of Iraqis preferred not to have Iranians or Jordanians living next door, while 71 percent hoped to avoid a Turkish neighbor.
There was more bad news for U.S. officials, who have worked hard to convince Iraqis that American intentions in Iraq are noble. The most recent survey, done in April this year, found almost no Iraqis who felt the United States had invaded to liberate their country from tyranny and build a democracy. Asked for "the three main reasons for the U.S. invasion of Iraq," fully 76 percent cited "to control Iraqi oil." That was followed by "to build military bases" (41 percent) and "to help Israel" (32 percent). Fewer than 2 percent chose "to bring democracy to Iraq" as their first choice.
One bright spot in the research: Iraqi attitudes appear to be veering away from support for a religious regime and toward support for secular politics and nationalism -- despite the lack of secular politicians and the growth of sectarian violence. Those agreeing it was "very good to have an Islamic government where religious leaders have absolute power" declined from 30 percent to 22 percent, with a major falloff in support from Sunnis (from 20 percent to 6 percent), who fear the majority Shiites will impose an Iran-like theocracy on Iraq. Even the Shiites showed a drop in support, to only about a third of those surveyed (from 39 percent to 34 percent).
Other findings show increases in Iraqi nationalism and support for democracy, including a rise in support for "democratic rule making" from 59 percent to 65 percent. Those attitudes give the study's principal investigator, sociologist Moaddel, reason for optimism amid all the bad news coming out of Baghdad. The drop in Sunni support for Islamic government, he says, "may make it increasingly difficult for the followers of alQaeda to recruit" in Iraq. And "while Iraqis remain angry about the violence in their country, this anger has not undermined their sense of national identity," he adds. "At the same time, they appear to be holding onto important democratic values. Whether these can be translated into a peaceful reality remains the difficult challenge in Iraq."
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